Commentary/Vir Sanghvi

Kesri is not a person who lays too much emphasis on scruple

When Sitaram Kesri did his calculations, he probably didn't bother with any conception of morality. He simply concentrated on trying to get the numbers required to become prime minister.

This has proved to be his undoing. Over the last two months, he has given the impression of being a man who will do anything to get ahead. The manner in which he betrayed Narasimha Rao, his cynical use of Manmohan Singh (he suggested he would replace Rao as CPP leader and then grabbed the job for himself) and his expulsion of former Punjab chief minister Harcharan Singh Brar while he lay on his hospital bed, all suggest that Kesri is not a person who lays too much emphasis on scruple.

Worse still, he has sent out the signal that he only wants Deve Gowda to go so that he can become prime minister himself. He has not even bothered to find a moderately convincing ideological justification or framed his opposition to the government in terms of issues.

To put it blandly: You can't be so openly greedy and still hope to persuade people that you are prime ministerial material. Over the last few years, the minimum standard for prime ministership has been lowered considerably. But even so, the Indian people still look for some kind of moral core.

That, alas, is the test that Kesri has flunked. If Deve Gowda continues to act like a regional chieftain and not as a prime minister then the same sort of thing is true of Kesri. He does not realise that the behaviour that might have been acceptable in a party treasurer, in the Congress president's munim, is not acceptable from the president himself. And it is certainly not worthy of a putative prime minister.

The second question -- about what will happen next -- is almost impossible to answer.

After the Punjab debacle and the by election defeats, Kesri is in trouble. There may well be nothing in the Dr Tanwar case but those who keep raising the issue have succeeded in doing what Kesri needs least - focusing attention on his moral core.

Already, there is speculation within the Congress that Kesri will not find it easy to get elected president this summer when organisational elections are due unless he manages to become prime minister by then. He may have to devise a power-sharing formula with somebody like Sharad Pawar, otherwise.

But while the future of the Congress and its interim president is hard to predict, it is easier to be forthright about his government. Basically, it can't last.

It lacks credibility in the eyes of the people and its ministers remain unknowns, several months after they took office. Nor can its internal contradictions keep it going beyond a point.

Had Kesri not been to greedy, the government would have toppled itself and he would have picked up the pieces.

By the end of the year, the government -- in its present form -- will cease. It could be replaced by a Congress government or perhaps, the Congress will join the ruling coalition. If neither of those two options works, then we are headed for another election.

For Kesri himself, the best course would be to keep his mouth shut, zip up his greed and adopt a low profile. Nobody is going to make him prime minister out of choice. But if Deve Gowda goes wrong -- as he probably will -- then the Congress should position itself so that it can grab power.

And who knows? Another accident of history may benefit Kesri as it did Deve Gowda and Narasimha Rao!

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